Xavier's basketball team talked nearly as long Thursday as it practiced. The buzzword was “bubble.”

        In the wake of their second loss in eight days, the Musketeers met to address the sensitive subject of a potential third consecutive late-season meltdown. Senior co-captain Reggie Butler spoke up about the pressure to reach the NCAA Tournament, and coach Skip Prosser challenged his players to seize the moment.

        “I think the urgency of the situation is evident,” Prosser said. “And our approach to that will go a long way to determine how we do.”

        XU is 18-5 (9-3 Atlantic 10), but it fell from 24th to 35th in the Ratings Percentage Index with its loss Wednesday at Massachusetts. It met for 50 minutes Thursday before taking the court for an hour-long workout.

        “They've got to decide the difference between pressure and stress,” Prosser said. “This is good pressure. It's a lot better pressure than being 5-18 would be.”

        Beginning the week, XU was being projected as a No.6 NCAA seed — which would match its highest ever — by Jerry Palm of collegeRPI.com, and as a No.8 seed by ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi.

        But the loss to UMass made XU's tourney chances tenuous. Short of earning an automatic bid by winning the A-10 Tournament, XU seemingly must win at least four of its next five games (four regular-season and an A-10 quarterfinal) to remain in contention.

        “When you're not in one of the power conferences, you have less margin for error, especially against teams you're supposed to beat,” ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said.

        Said Palm: “Xavier's still on the high side of the bubble. But you certainly don't want to take another questionable loss and have your RPI fall into the 50s.”

        No one in the top 30 of the RPI has ever been left out of the NCAAs. There have been few teams higher than No.60 ever invited.

        Even going, say, 4-2 — which would make XU 22-7 — isn't safe if the losses come to low-RPI teams. Rhode Island (232 RPI) and LaSalle (143) are must-win games, as is a home game against St.Bonaventure (64). Only a March 4 trip to Dayton (80), where XU has lost five straight seasons, could be excused as a “quality loss.”

        Two years ago, XU had 21 wins on Selection Sunday but got bounced because of late losses at Dayton (157 RPI) and La Salle (172). Last year, XU's 20 wins were overshadowed by losses at Duquesne (212), La Salle (169) and Virginia Tech (140).

        “These next three are must-wins, no question,” XU assistant Dino Gaudio said.

        Another problem: UMass (11-11, 9-2) has hurdled XU into second place in the league. Short of winning out, UMass (56 RPI) is unlikely to merit an NCAA at-large bid. So if XU remains third in the standings, behind UMass, it had better have a lot to sell.

        “The (selection) committee traditionally doesn't skip teams in the standings for at-large bids,” Palm said. “They have before, but they won't normally do it for the A-10.”

        It has happened five times since 1994. In four of the five cases, the team invited had a higher RPI than the one skipped in the standings — as could be the case for XU and UMass.

        “(The players) are in control of their own destiny,” Prosser said. “But that's a fleeting thing.”

        Butler, a fifth-year senior, cautioned his teammates not to let the tourney chase change their play.

        “What can happen is you start being more critical of yourselves,” he said. “You miss a shot and start thinking about it, putting pressure on yourself, when earlier in the year you're just loose and playing.”

        Few know the way. The Musketeers' collective NCAA Tournament experience is the six minutes Maurice McAfee played in a 1998 tourney loss to Washington.

        Butler played on that team and was a redshirt member of the team the previous season, when XU reached the NCAA's second round.

        “The guys outside of Reggie and Moe, and Alvin Brown redshirting (in '97-98), they've never experienced that,” Gaudio said. “That's rare for a Xavier team. It was always (a progression) from one class to the next, understanding what it was about.”

        Bilas agrees with Butler: XU can't be cautious.

        “Don't play to protect a bid you don't have,” Bilas said. “Go out and get one.”

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