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Thursday, March 27, 2003

UK can be beaten - and here's how


Coaches: Wildcats vulnerable in post

By Neil Schmidt
The Cincinnati Enquirer

MINNEAPOLIS - Bo Ryan fakes outrage when asked if his Wisconsin team should slow the pace of its game tonight against Kentucky.

"You're stealing my game plan," he says.

img
UK's Keith Bogans signs a basketball for Jontae Koonkaew, 15, of Apple Valley, Minn., after practice Wednesday in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis.
(Gary Landers photo)
| ZOOM |
Then he laughs.

"Mine and about 30 other teams that played Kentucky."

Ryan is the latest coach trying to topple the top-ranked Wildcats (31-3). Entering the Midwest Regional semifinal tonight in the Metrodome, UK's last 25 opponents have failed.

"The only team we feel can beat us is ourselves," UK forward Chuck Hayes said.

Self-destruction aside, is there anything a team can attack? Certainly.

"Every team has some weaknesses," Utah coach Rick Majerus said.

The principal suggestion from coaches who have played UK is that it could be vulnerable to a strong low-post scorer and to unflappable guards who can penetrate.

UK vs. WISCONSIN
Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. today, Metrodome (38,296), Minneapolis.
Records: UK 31-3, Wisconsin 24-7.
Line: UK by 11 1/2
TV: Ch. 12, 7.
Radio: WSAI-AM (1530), WCKY-AM (1360).
Series: UK leads 2-1.
"They're going to have some difficulty with physical players," Majerus said. "I think (UK center Marquis) Estill will have a tough time against Pittsburgh with how big they are."

UK could meet Pitt in the regional final if the Wildcats beat Wisconsin (24-7) and the Panthers beat Marquette.

Estill has fouled out just once but has a team-high 99 fouls, playing just 23.8 minutes a game. He's not especially aggressive on the boards, averaging 6.0 rebounds. And UK loses muscle when it goes to willowy Jules Camara off the bench.

The Badgers start four guards and have just one starter, 6-foot-8 Mike Wilkinson, taller than 6-5. Yet they still play a bruising Big Ten style.

Michigan State used rugged inside play to win in Rupp Arena in December, and Indiana took the Wildcats to the wire. UK lost to Louisville in part because Marvin Stone and Ellis Myles outmuscled the Wildcats. Ohio's Brandon Hunter (18 points, 16 rebounds) and Mississippi State's Mario Austin (20 points in his first meeting with UK) also created matchup problems.

"Wilkinson isn't that kind of presence," said Ohio coach Tim O'Shea, whose team lost to both UK and Wisconsin this season. "But Wisconsin is still very disciplined and difficult to defend."

UK hasn't faced many premier point guards. It dismantled Notre Dame's Chris Thomas and mostly limited Mississippi State's Derrick Zimmerman. A matchup with Pitt's Brandin Knight would offer a stiff test in this regard.

One of the reasons UK could be vulnerable to penetration is that coach Tubby Smith has extended his defense this season, mostly to better guard 3-point shooters.

It has worked, as opponents shoot just 32.5 percent outside the arc - the best in Smith's tenure. But there are torn seams to be found in the defense.

The Badgers have a six-man rotation and prefer a slower pace with Ryan's "swing" offense, but they won't entirely take the air out of the ball.

"If you play tentative, your players are playing out of sync," Ryan said. "You have to have that midpoint where you say, `We are going to try to get good looks in three passes, but if it takes us six or seven or eight, then so be it.'"

Defending UK is also problematic. The Wildcats are shooting 49.1 percent, their best figure since 1985-86. Nearly every opponent of late has tried a zone defense, with limited success.

"If I had a zone, I would have played one," Majerus said. "But I don't have one."

UK has made enough outside shots, shooting 36 percent on 3-pointers, to counteract that. But if it struggles, as in its 2-for-22 night from long range in an 80-72 win over Gonzaga, maybe it can be had.

The last factor in a team's upset hopes goes to poise. O'Shea figures Wisconsin, as an 111/2-point underdog, will play loose. It averages just 10.5 turnovers a game, so it shouldn't cough up the ball to give UK easy points.

Should the Badgers still be in striking range late in the game, the pressure shifts to UK.

"I think it's a great advantage to be a big underdog, to have a chip on your shoulder," O'Shea said of Wisconsin.

UK senior guard Keith Bogans said his team wouldn't buckle under that situation.

"We know we can be beat," he said. "But we have the mentality that we won't accept losing."

Related stories:
UK Notebook: 4th round or bust
UK-Wisconsin lineups, stats
Badgers' goal: Beat press




REDS-BASEBALL
Reds' batting order unsettled
Harmon to throw park's 1st pitch
All's right with Griffey
Stations warm up for Reds season
Reds Notebook: Haynes sharp in final tuneup
Reds 6, Red Sox 1
Other Spring Training Games
Spring Training Standings
Martinez faces contract questions
Indians make some tough decisions
Baseball Notebook: Herges cut despite 1.93 ERA

BENGALS-NFL
Akili hangs on with Bengals
Emmitt joins Cardinals
Dolphins eyeing Seau
NFL owners put off change

KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
UK can be beaten - and here's how
UK Notebook: 4th round or bust
UK-Wisconsin lineups, stats
Badgers' goal: Beat press

MEN'S BASKETBALL
Updated NCAA scores and game coverage
Hoops Madness contest and Cincinnati.com coverage
Pitt-Marquette preview
Notre Dame-Arizona Preview
Kansas-Duke preview
Butler credits teamwork
Blake makes his 'point' at Maryland
Texas duo at home in New York
NIT Games: Knight, Texas Tech reach semis

WOMEN'S BASKETBALL
NKU women reach Final Four
Women take steps toward parity
Tennessee at home in NCAAs

HIGH SCHOOL BASKETBALL
Campbell Co. falls in Sweet 16
Other Girls Sweet 16 Games
LeBron MVP of McDonald's game
Future teammates rule McDonald's girls game

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Sports on TV-Radio

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Shaq gets better of Yao again
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Chinese pair win second title

TENNIS
Capriati passes test of nerves

GOLF
Tiger is one to beat at TPC
Sorenstam stalks more golf history
Golf on TV this weekend

 

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