What the experts picked this quarter - and how their long-term picks from a year ago and two years ago have performed so far (returns reported from Feb. 22, 2001, or Feb. 21, 2002, the dates of recommendations, to Friday, accounting for splits and reinvested dividends). The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 20.8 percent for the same one-year period and 31.1 percent for the same two year period.
Fred Brink
Title: Equity analyst, Johnson Investment Counsel.
Pick: American International Group Inc. (AIG).
Business: Insurance and financial services.
Why: "It's a multiline insurance company with a product line that includes property, casualty and life insurance, as well as several other financial service products. ... They had a charge in the last quarter about $1.8 billion after tax to increase their liability reserves. Management now feels that its in alignment with where it should be. ... The stock got hit pretty good, it's got about a 13 (estimated price to earnings ratio), and it's a low to midteens type grower. This is the time and kind of stock we like to buy."
February 2002 pick: General Electric Co. (GE) 33.7 percent loss.
February 2001 pick: Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 32.0 percent loss.
Dan Seiver
Title: Professor of economics, Miami University.
Pick: Autodesk Inc.
Business: Maker of computer-design software.
Why: "The company has started to recover from the tech slump, and earnings should trend sharply upward as new releases of its flagship products are rolled out this year. The stock is cheap in the low teens."
February 2002 pick: Diversa Corp. (DVSA), 31.6 percent loss.
February 2001 pick: Intel Corp. (INTC), 42.1 percent loss.
Denise Ingersoll
Title: Vice president of investments, Robert W. Baird Private Investment Management Group/Dayton.
Pick: General Electric Co. (GE).
Business: Diversified manufacturing.
Why: "It's around $23, not only at the lower end of its 52-week, but probably at the lower end of its three-year (trading range). ... It's trading right now at a multiple of around its growth rate, and there's a lot of talk right now about whether or not they can continue to grow at the levels they've been growing. But I think for the size, the diversity, the earnings, at these levels, we're buyers of GE for the long term."
February 2002 pick: American Power Conversion Corp. (APCC) 22.7 percent gain.
February 2001 pick: Sara Lee Corp. (SLE) 3.9 percent loss.
Greg Weirich
Title: Vice president, PNC Advisors.
Pick: BlackRock High Yield Bond Portfolio (BHYIX).
Business: A mutual fund specializing in more risky, higher paying corporate bonds. (Disclaimer: PNC owns the majority of fund manager BlackRock Advisors Inc.)
Why: "I look at this as a stock, not a bond, I want to make that clear. ... I look at it as giving you most of the upside of a stock right now if we do have a recovery, with a lot less downside because of the interest protection. ... Since the end of November, I think the stock market is down 15 percent. This fund ...is up about 8 percent between interest and appreciation."
February 2002 pick: Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW, 13.5 percent loss.
February 2001 pick: Washington Mutual (WM), 8.0 percent gain.
Madelynn Matlock
Title: Director of international investments, Huntington National Bank.
Pick: Rio Tinto plc (RTP-ADR).
Business: Mineral mining.
Why: "Its relative performance over two years has been really good, but I think it's got further to go. This is one of the major diversified commodity companies in the world. ... They are one of two major suppliers of iron ore in the world. ... The strategic part of this is that commodity prices have gotten very, very low. ... I don't think this is the cheapest stock in the world, but I think this is the kind of thing to put in your portfolio and just leave it there for five years and you'll be very happy."
February 2002 pick: Electrolux AB (ELUX-ADR), 6.7 percent gain.
February 2001 pick: Syngenta AG (SYT-ADR), 16.8 percent loss.
Sunil Reddy
Title: Equity analyst and portfolio manager, Fifth Third Bank.
Pick: Analog Devices Inc. (ADI).
Business: Maker of signal-processing chips.
Why: "It's a broad-based semiconductor company, with almost 68 percent of their revenue from high performance analog chips. Clearly, the downturn in technology has affected the company, but relative to other tech companies, it maintained their margins and their potential for margin growth. ... We like the management."
No earlier picks.
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