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Saturday, October 26, 2002

Confidence, factory orders sink sharply


Wide decline in demand sign of struggling economy

By Martin Crutsinger
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - The nation's hard-hit manufacturers suffered another drop in demand for their products while consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in almost 10 years, raising new fears of a possible double-dip recession.

A batch of new reports released Friday depicted an economy still struggling.

The Commerce Department said orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket durable goods fell by 5.9 percent in September, the biggest decrease in 10 months and the third decline in the past four months.

The new weakness was led by a huge plunge in orders for communication equipment, but the declines were widespread across most industries.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence as measured by a University of Michigan survey declined to 80.6 in October, the lowest level since 1993, as Americans were spooked by the falling stock market and rising concerns about a possible war with Iraq.

It marked the fifth monthly decline in confidence and raised worries that consumer spending, the biggest prop holding up the economy, could be in danger of faltering.

"Unless the downward momentum is quickly halted, the accumulated loss in consumer confidence could tip the economy back into recession," said Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan survey.

Both home and car sales have been red-hot this year, reflecting the Federal Reserve's decision to keep a key interest rate at a four-decade low. But private economists worried about what could take up the slack if consumers decide to take a breather.

"The economy is creeping ahead, but only just barely," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. "As long as another shoe doesn't drop, we'll probably be fine."

The worse-than-expected 5.9 percent decline in orders for durable goods followed news earlier this week of a fourth straight monthly decline in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, indicating weakness for the next half-year, and the Fed's latest survey of business conditions showed sluggish sales and a lackluster job market.

The 5.9 percent drop in orders for durable goods in September followed a 0.6 percent decline in August and a 4.5 percent drop in June. Only July posted an increase during this period, a gain of 8.5 percent.

Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, said U.S. factories were struggling to mount an "uneven recovery" with "uncertainty regarding the stock market and possible war in the Middle East" continuing to impede business investment.



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