Wednesday, August 29, 2001
Consumer confidence falls again
But low interest, tax cuts expected to fuel spending
The Associated Press
NEW YORK Consumer confidence fell in August for a second straight month amid rising worries about unemployment, but sentiment about the economy's long-term prospects improved slightly, suggesting consumer spending will continue to prop up the ailing economy.
The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index eroded to 114.3, down from a revised 116.3 in July. The drop followed two consecutive gains in May and June and is the lowest since the index hit 109.9 in April.
While diminished confidence could cause consumers to pare the spending powering the economy, an uptick in the outlook for the next six to nine months,
from 92.9 in July to 93.3 in August, indicates spending is likely to hold up, analysts said.
You're seeing a convergence where people are saying things are not as good as they were before, but they also don't look as bad as we thought they were or as bad as we thought they could be, said Gerald Cohen, senior economist with Merrill Lynch.
That latent optimism, bolstered by low interest rates and tax rebates, may be enough to keep consumers spending, analysts said.
If consumers decide to bail out, the economy could go into a recession, said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist with Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. However, I am hoping that consumer confidence will rebound as the tail winds, including the tax cut, the effect of lower interest rates and the cheaper cost of energy help the consumer to move forward.
Trying to avert a recession, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates seven times this year.
The Conference Board index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is considered a key indicator because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. The index compares results to its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100.
The August decline reflects slightly diminished optimism about the current state of the economy, with 14.9 percent of consumers rating business conditions as bad, compared with 14.6 percent in July.
Those worries were particularly evident in sentiments about jobs, with 15.9 percent of those surveyed saying jobs were hard to get, up from 14.1 percent in July. The number who said jobs were plentiful fell from 35.6 percent to 33.4 percent.
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