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E N Q U I R E R   L O C A L   N E W S   C O V E R A G E
Crime down for sixth year, FBI reports
Experts warn of potential reversal soon

Monday, November 23, 1998

WASHINGTON - The nation's overall crime rate fell in 1997 for the sixth consecutive year, with the rate of violent crimes such as murders and robberies showing the sharpest drop, the FBI reported Sunday.

The nation's big cities experienced the steepest decline with a 5 percent drop, while suburban counties saw a decrease of 4 percent and rural areas 1 percent.

Criminal experts and law enforcement officials attributed the drop to several factors, including the aging of baby boomers, increased incarceration of criminals, declining use of crack cocaine, additional police officers and better policing methods. Overall, the rate of violent crimes fell 4 percent from 1996, helping to push down the overall U.S. crime rate by 3 percent, its lowest level in more than a decade, the FBI reported.

Murders fell by more than 7 percent to 18,209. In the past four years, the murder rate has plummeted by more than 25 percent. Robberies fell 8 percent, aggravated assaults 2 percent and forcible rapes 1 percent.

"It definitely continues the trend of good news about crime," said James Alan Fox, dean of Northeastern University's College of Criminal Justice.

But, Mr. Fox cautioned: "People should remember that these numbers aren't the full story. In the coming years, these declines could turn quickly."

Mr. Fox and other crime experts said two dominant trends are influencing the nation's crime rate.

First, the aging of the baby boom generation, which makes up 25 percent of the population, has pushed down the number of crimes because adults tend to be less violent than juveniles.

At the same time, the number of crimes committed by teen-agers has risen sharply since the mid-1980s. The number of murders committed by teen-agers increased 145 percent from 1985 to 1995. And although the number of violent crimes committed by juveniles has fallen slightly in the past two years, the number of teen-agers will grow quickly over the next decade.

There are 40 million children under the age of 10 nationwide. Mr. Fox said future crime rates will be determined by how society deals with the rising tide of teen-agers over the next decade.

"Right now, crime rates peak in the couple of hours between the end of school and when most parents get home for dinner," he said. "That tells you that our children are not getting enough supervision from their parents."

At a press conference Thursday, Attorney General Janet Reno said Americans should not "relax their vigilance about crime, about enforcement, about prevention."

She said that the large number of people growing through their teens and early 20s over the next decade presents law enforcement officials with a challenge, but that these kids do not have to become criminals.

"We've got to make sure, as we have more young people, that we have more programs for them, more opportunities to give them a strong and positive future," Ms. Reno said.

All regions saw crime rates fall in 1997, with the Northeast experiencing the largest drop, 5 percent, the FBI report said. The crime rate in the West and South declined nearly 3 percent, while the Midwest saw a drop of 2 percent.

The FBI report also said the rate of property crimes, burglaries and larceny fell 3 percent, while the rate of motor vehicle thefts dropped 4 percent.

The report noted that 65 law enforcement officers were killed in the line of duty during 1997, nine more than in 1996. Of the slain officers, 34 worked for city police departments, 20 for county police and sheriff's offices, nine for state agencies and two for federal agencies.

In 1997, the South was by far the most dangerous region for law enforcement officers. Thirty-two officers were killed in that part of the country last year, more than twice as many as next highest region, the West, where 15 officers were slain. Eleven officers were killed in the Midwest and seven in the Northeast.



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