Sunday, May 23, 1999
Republicans miss big chance
Patton will face only token foe
BY PATRICK CROWLEY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Tuesday won't exactly be the most memorable day in the history of Republican politics in Kentucky.
There's a pretty good chance that Peppy Martin will become the first female GOP gubernatorial nominee in state history, but don't look for much celebrating from the Republicans on the local or state scene.
With all due respect to the two candidates vying for the party's nomination — Ms. Martin and utility contractor David L. Williams — the Republicans haven't torn up the campaign trail this primary season.
Mr. Williams has done no campaigning; Ms. Martin has done some, but not much. Come this fall, Gov. Paul Patton looks like he'll be able to stay in the Governor's Mansion for another four years.
The GOP is embarrassed, and it should be. After some major successes in recent years that have established a true two-party system in Kentucky — coupled with some big talk about how Mr. Patton was “going down” — the Republicans backed way off in fielding a credible challenge to Mr. Patton.
What was GOP leadership thinking? Is it really better to run a couple of no-chance candidates than to put up a young, rising-star type candidate — a Damon Thayer, a Katie Stine or someone like that — who could build some name recognition for a future race and give the party at least a fighting chance?
That said, Democrats shouldn't get too cocky about the governor's race. Even with the pass the GOP is taking in the election, the Republican Party is still the party on the rise in Kentucky. Some smart leaders are already focusing on next year's state Senate races, which could easily result in the Republicans holding the chamber for the first time in history.
Of course, the party is showing some of its weakness in not yet having a confirmed, well-known candidate to run against U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas next year. But they probably will.
Surely the Dems remember how U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, the Southgate Republican, faced token opposition in most of his six U.S. House races. This candidate recruitment stuff, particularly when trying to knock off an entrenched incumbent like Mr. Bunning or Mr. Patton, is tough.
Gex sniffing support. Some GOP party leaders and campaign strategists say former Boone County Republican state Sen. Gex (Jay) Williams has been testing the waters for another run at Congress.
Mr. Williams was beaten badly last year by Mr. Lucas in a nasty race for the 4th District seat.
But with no Republican candidate yet in the race — Oldham County's Don Bell and Fort Thomas attorney Jim Kidney are pondering running — sources say Mr. Williams has been asking some Republicans if he should run again next year.
“I don't think Gex will go in 2000,” one party leader said. “But he is thinking about 2004.'' That's when Mr. Lucas, according to the term limits pledge he signed, should be leaving office.
That might be wishful thinking. Republican Party campaign strategists here, statewide and in Washington would like to get more of a mainstream candidate than Mr. Williams, who leans far right.
Abortion semantics. The anti-abortion group Northern Kentucky Right to Life isn't likely to back Texas Gov. George W. Bush for the GOP nomination for president.
Mr. Bush has waffled on the issue, according to local Right to Life President Robert C. Cetrulo. He prefers others in the race who are more forceful in their opposition to abortion, a list that includes commentators Pat Buchanan and Alan Keyes, New Hampshire Sen. Robert Smith and Newport's own Gary Bauer.
But some Northern Kentucky Republican lawmakers Mr. Cetrulo and Right to Life have supported — Sen. Dick Roeding of Lakeside Park and Boone County House members Paul Marcotte and Charlie Walton - came out this week in support of Mr. Bush.
That could put Right to Life in a tough situation. The group has ripped Democrats in the past for supporting politicians Right to Life has not backed.
The most celebrated instance involved former statehouse member Bill Donnermeyer. In his 25 years in Frankfort the Bellevue Democrat championed anti-abortion causes but then fell out of favor with Right to Life after he supported Gov. Paul Patton four years ago. Right to Life does not support Mr. Patton.
So will Right to Life disavow the GOP lawmakers for backing Mr. Bush, even though evangelist and former presidential candidate Pat Robertson as well as the national Right to Life have defended Mr. Bush's record and stance on abortion?
“That's not my decision, that's up to the Right to Life board of directors,” Mr. Cetrulo said. “But obviously, I'm disappointed.”
Mr. Marcotte, a Roman Catholic strongly opposed to abortion, said he is comfortable with supporting Mr. Bush.
“If I see something before the nominating convention next year that causes me to question my support, then I'll go with another candidate,” Mr. Marcotte said.
“But I think George W. Bush is an excellent candidate, and I'm convinced he is pro-life.”
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics for The Kentucky Enquirer. His column appears Thursdays and Sundays. He can be reached at crowleys@cinci.infi.net.
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics for the Enquirer. He can be reached at 578-5581, or (502) 875-7526 in Frankfort.
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