Thrusday, January 14, 1999
Fight for Lucas' seat under way
Republicans lack candidate, money, issues
BY PATRICK CROWLEY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
If Ken Lucas suffered from political paranoia, he'd have whiplash by now from looking over his shoulder.
The Boone County Democrat has been a member of the U.S. House for exactly a week and a day, yet Republicans in Northern Kentucky, out in the 4th District he represents and in Washington, are already trying to find a candidate to run against him in the 2000 race.
As early as election night, when Republican Gex “Jay” Williams was still dazed about losing a seat the GOP had held for 32 years, GOP leaders were trying to float rumors to the press that Mr. Lucas was considering switching parties.
That turned out to be bogus. But the Republicans are clearly on a mission to get a candidate, get his or her name in the paper as much as possible, and then start raising the million bucks or so it's going to take to beat an incumbent, even if he is a Democrat in what is considered a Republican seat.
On the very day Mr. Lucas was sworn into office last week, three Northern Kentucky Republicans — 4th District GOP Chairman Damon Thayer, Boone County Republican Party Chairman Jay Hall, and party strategist and fund-raiser Hayes Robertson of Alexandria — were in Washington and huddling with officials from the Na tional Republican Congressional Committee.
Here's what the Republicans took away from the meeting:
• The candidate will need to raise $1 million and should have a finance committee in place to shake down donors as soon as possible. With an individual allowed to give no more than $1,000 to a candidate, it's going to take a long time to raise that much dough, which is why it is necessary to start trolling for cash now.
• The Republicans need to avoid a primary. Fat chance. The social, religious conservatives that backed Mr. Williams are going to want their own candidate in the race — maybe even Mr. Williams again — and may not jump gleefully on board with somebody recruited by the official party apparatus.
• The race will be a priority for the NRCC and other Republican Party groups and committees. Big deal. It was last time, and the GOP lost.
• Mr. Lucas, while his campaign isn't eager to talk about it, is already putting in place a very preliminary campaign finance and political plan. Just last week while in Washington, Mr. Lucas met with the gang from Sutter's Mill, his political consulting firm.
“We need a candidate to hit the road and raise money before the presidential vacuum cleaners are turned on” and all the cash from donors is sucked up, Mr. Robertson said.
Even some Republican Party officials and office-holders in Washington are pitching in and trying to help recruit a candidate.
U.S. Rep. Ann Northup, a Louisville Republican, has given state Sen. Katie Stine of Fort Thomas a call.
Others have called, or plan to call, Republicans Lawson Walker, a Villa Hills attorney; former state Rep. Jim Zimmerman of Oldham County on the west end of the district near Louisville; and state Sen. Charlie Borders of Russell, on the far east end of the district.
So far, Mrs. Stine and Mr. Walker are balking, though final decisions haven't been made, or at least announced.
Common knowledge dictates that a candidate from outside Northern Kentucky, where about half of the 4th District's voters live, will have a hard if not impossible time taking back the seat.
If the Lucas camp is spooked, they aren't showing it.
“The Republican bench is incredibly thin,” said John Lapp, Mr. Lucas' chief of staff. “There just isn't anyone out there close to the triple threat of Ken Lucas.
“He's a well-respected community leader, an expert in edu cation and economic development issues, and a congressman who has mainstream Kentucky values,” Mr. Lapp said.
“Our plan is pretty simple right now,” said Walton attorney Mark Guilfoyle, Mr. Lucas' top political adviser. “Work hard and do the job for the people of the 4th District. If Ken Lucas does that, and he will, he will be re-elected.”
The Republicans were frothing at the mouth last week and hoping Mr. Lucas, in just his first day in the House, would vote with the Democrats on appointing the 13 GOP lawmakers, or “managers,” who will prosecute President Clinton in his Senate impeachment trial that begins today.
But Mr. Lucas voted with the Republicans and against the majority of Democrats, just like he said he would while campaigning for the seat last year.
That quickly burst the GOP's balloon. So some party faithful pointed out how Mr. Lucas voted for Democrat Dick Gephardt for House minority leader.
Republicans, who like to call Mr. Gephardt the most liberal member of the House, were giddy with that vote. But good luck trying to make it stick with voters.
This is America, folks, where maybe in a good year 40 percent of the people bother to vote. You think the voters of the 4th District know who Dick Gephardt is? There are people in the 4th District who don't know who Ken Lucas is.
That's a lame issue. As they say in hoops, come strong or don't come at all.
Get a candidate. Start raising money. Sit back and wait for some real, seriously tough votes that will put Mr. Lucas — who bills himself as a “common sense” conservative — in a political bind with the voters back home. Because sooner or later, those votes will come.
But until then, crying “wolf” or “liberal” every time Mr. Lucas walks into the House chamber will get old real fast. It sure didn't work in the campaign.
“Republicans like to talk a good game, but so much of it is bluster,” Mr. Guilfoyle said. “They made noise all last year about how they were going to get somebody big to run against Gov. (Paul) Patton, and one by one they all dropped out.
“I'm just struck by the desperate tone the Republicans are taking,” he said. “Ken Lucas has been on the job one week and they're shooting at him. Give him, at the very least, a chance to perform on the job.”
That's not going to happen, either. The GOP is steamed and will stay that way until the party wins the seat back. Now all they need is a candidate, lots of money and some issues.
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics for The Kentucky Enquirer. His column appears Thursdays and Sundays. He can be reached at 578-5581, at (502) 875-7526 in Frankfort, or by e-mail at crowleys@cinci.infi.net
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics for the Enquirer. He can be reached at 578-5581, or (502) 875-7526 in Frankfort.
CROWLEY ARCHIVE
